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Dogecoin is still trading in a far smaller range than long-time holders would have imagined a few months ago, and that is exactly what makes its technical setup so interesting.
The meme coin is now trading around multi-year lows, but some traders now believe this compression could be the base for a short-term breakout attempt. However, the focus is on whether Dogecoin can defend support long enough to reclaim the important $0.10 price level, not on ambitious cycle highs.
A Channel That Has Swallowed Six Months Of Hope Once upon a time, Dogecoin bulls were dreaming of $1. Now, they’re watching $0.10.
That’s the quietly uncomfortable reality sitting beneath a new technical analysis shared on X by crypto analyst Erick, who noted that Dogecoin is currently compressing inside a falling channel and that a breakout, if it comes, might be enough to push the meme coin back above $0.1.
Related Reading: Dogecoin Morning Doji Star Shows Bullish Reversal That Will Send Price To $0.8 The daily DOGE/USDT chart on Binance shows that the meme coin has been locked inside a falling channel since October 2025.
This pattern is defined by two descending parallel trendlines that have consistently acted as a ceiling and a floor, guiding price progressively lower with lower highs and lower lows in each passing week. As it stands, Dogecoin is now sitting right on an important support zone with the token trading around $0.089.
Interestingly, this is simultaneously on top of a horizontal support zone near $0.089, a level that has been tested multiple times and has, so far, refused to break. Push Above $0.10 Matters More Than It Should According to Erick, a price breakout could be near.
If the current Dogecoin price level holds, a bounce toward $0.10+ might be on the table. Related Reading: Revisiting The Dogecoin Rally To $10: Where Is The Meme Coin This Cycle? There is an irony in the current setup.
Some Dogecoin bulls are now watching $0.10 as a meaningful upside target, a level that once would have looked modest, considering the meme coin has spent recent months with much bigger expectations.
However, looking at the present structure, $0.10 carries weight because it would mark a break above an important psychological threshold and signal that buyers have wrestled back some control from the broader downtrend. Another technical perspective also shows the current nature of Dogecoin’s price action.
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WTI crude oil, which soared nearly 30% to $120 per barrel overnight, has pulled back to $95, easing pressure on risk assets.
A crypto market analyst has outlined what he describes as a straightforward mathematical method that helped identify the bottom of Bitcoin’s previous bear market.
By focusing on long-term Fibonacci levels and quarterly price behavior, the analyst argues that the same structural logic that marked the 2022 bottom is now shaping Bitcoin’s next macro phase.
Simple Math That Identified The Bitcoin Price Bear Market Bottom In an X post shared on March 8, crypto analyst Chetan Gurjar revisited a prediction he made in December 2022 regarding Bitcoin’s bear market low.
While he acknowledged that the timing of the call was slightly off by a few months, he stated that the price target itself proved accurate.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidation Map Predicts The Next Targets To Watch Out For The analysis referenced Bitcoin’s bear market bottom around the $15,000 region in late 2022, which the analyst had previously projected using this framework.
His approach centers on macro Fibonacci extension levels plotted on the quarterly chart, with particular focus on the 1.618 Fibonacci level positioned near $62,084. The chart accompanying the explanation highlights how Bitcoin historically reacts to this macro level.
During the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break and sustain price action above the 1.618 Fibonacci level. The analyst pointed to the second and fourth quarter candles of 2021, both of which were rejected at that same zone.
These repeated rejections signaled strong resistance at the time, reinforcing the significance of the level in the broader market structure. By mapping these macro levels across cycles, the analyst argues that long-term Fibonacci mathematics can help identify both extreme lows and potential expansion targets.
Quarterly Fibonacci Retest Suggests Next Macro Phase The analyst’s latest chart interpretation suggests that Bitcoin’s relationship with the 1.618 Fibonacci level has shifted from resistance to support.
After breaking above the $62,084 region on the quarterly timeframe, Bitcoin has not produced a quarterly candle close below the level since the breakout. The chart shows two notable retests following the move.
In the second and third quarters afterward, Bitcoin briefly tested the level but managed to hold above it on a closing basis. One quarterly wick even dipped below $50,000 before reclaiming the $62,084 level. As of the current quarter ending in March, Bitcoin is again trading above the same macro Fibonacci level.
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This morning, Bitget X handle tweet "USO Oil Surge Incoming" and surprising Oil hit $119 (WTI hitting an intraday high of $119.48, up over 30% in days), marking its highest level since the 2022 energy crisis, as fresh US-Israel-Iran strikes shut the Strait of Hormuz, triggered production cuts across Saudi, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait, and sparked fears of a full Gulf supply blackout.
USO ETF saw record retail inflows flooding in, gasoline futures jumped 10%+ to multi-year highs, and traders are now pricing in $130–$150 targets if the escalation continues. Do you think analyst speculation of $170 is possible? submitted by /u/Comfortable_Fly_7943 [link] [comments]
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In a separate analysis posted on X, crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade pointed out that Dogecoin recently attempted an upside breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart but failed to sustain the move.
According to the analyst, Dogecoin has now fallen back inside the triangle structure after the breakout attempt, turning into a false breakout. In his words, Dogecoin has now entered into an indecisive mode. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.09.
Tardigrade’s chart lays out scenarios of a green arrow projecting a recovery to the $0.14-$0.15 range and a red arrow pointing to a collapse to the $0.06 region. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
According to the analyst’s interpretation, this behavior represents a bullish quarterly retest.
Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Bottom Hasn’t Happened Yet, Gives Timeline To Expect Reversal The projection drawn on the chart extends toward the next Fibonacci expansion level at 2.618, which sits near $393,874. Gurjar describes this level as the minimum macro target if the structure holds.
The chart also signals potential volatility, suggesting price wicks could stretch toward the $500,000 region during the expansion phase. However, the analyst notes that deeper quarterly wicks remain possible depending on broader market conditions, including potential weakness in the altcoin market.
Even with that caveat, the framework presents the current structure as a continuation pattern centered on Bitcoin holding the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
